METROPOLIS UNIVERSITY OF RECENT YORK
MS BUSINESS ECONOMICS
FACTORS IMPACTING ON TIME DEPOSITS IN POULTRY
ILYAS DOGAN 109965454
This kind of paper investigates the factors that effect the time debris in Turkey by using the geradlinig regression research. There are lots of factors which affect the time debris. In my regression model, My spouse and i used some such as; exchange rate, interest, consumer price index, low cost price index and precious metal prices. They are my 3rd party variables although time pay in is my own dependent adjustable. I also adjusted the Dollar/ European Lira exchange rate mainly because Turkey started out using The Fresh Turkish Genio by dropping 6 zeros from the forex Turkish Genio on 01. 01. june 2006. The reference point of all factors is http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/ Meanings from the variables the following;
Time Deposit( TD): Yearly equivalent of monthly time deposits bought and sold in banking companies. Exchange Charge (ET): New Turkish Lira equivalent from the average dollar exchange level during the year. Interest (IT): Every year equivalent of weighted 12-month term build up interest rate. From suppliers Price Index (WPI): Yearly percentage changes in wholesale price index. Client Price Index (CPI ):: Annually percentage changes in buyer price index. Gold Price (GP): New Turkish Lira equal of the average gold price in the past year.
Variables are monthly data which will contains 70 months via January 98 to December 2002. Economical market in Turkey have got started to get increased just lately. After turmoil, people started trusting the banking program and tried to gain more interest. This laid people to put out by interest their money. Time first deposit is one of the many preferred techniques by people to get interest on money. There are some factors affect peoples' decisions. I actually tried to make clear those factors in my regression model. In theory; if the interest rate of the home currency boosts and and revenue of domestic money is predicted to be above exchange price, demand for the time deposit will increase because the cost of keeping foreign currency will increase. Thus, exchange rate reduces which results the demand on the time put in positively. Yet , developing countries like Poultry can keep the interest rate large since they possess a home dept difficulty. Turkey is actually a country that lives overall economy almost every decade, even though it appears more powerful over the last decade. Those crisis trigger the household currency to depreciate plus the inflation to improve. This situation makes exchange level and time deposit to look directly proportional although they are certainly not theoretically. For this reason our predicted sign for exchange rate's coefficient can be (? ) neither great nor unfavorable, whereas the expected sign for fascination rate's coefficient is (+) positive. WPI and CPI increases because of the inflation issue. Inflation is general and progressive raises in rates. When prices goes up WPI and CPI goes up as well. Therefore , each of our expected sings for equally WPI and CPI's rapport are (+) positive. Rare metal is a option investment application for period deposits. If perhaps gold rates increases, time deposit decreases since people want to keep their money in something more profitable. Thus, coefficient of gold's anticipated sign can be (-) bad.
|Month/Year |Time |Exchange |Interest |WPI |CPI |Gold | | |Deposit |Rate |Rate | | |Price | |1/1998 |4364322 |0, 21216 |7. 819 |839. 1 |919. 4 |1344. 000 | |2/1998 |4343010 |0, 22377 |7. 783 |877. 5 |960. zero |1481. two hundred fifty | |3/1998 |4674915 |0, 23593...